top of page

Will the Russia-Ukraine Conflict End in 2023?

"We have not received any proposal from anyone, and the New Year's ceasefire is not on the agenda." When the Russian President's spokesman Peskov made this statement recently, it meant that the conflict, which lasted for ten months between Russia and Ukraine, would ignore the 2023 New Year's Eve events worldwide.



On February 24, 2022, after the diplomatic mediation dialogue on border and security issues between Russia and Ukraine failed, a conflict broke out and rewrote the geopolitical pattern of post-war international relations.


So far, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than 300 days. During the period, the West launched as many as nine rounds of sanctions against Russia involving finance, energy, and foreign trade.


Since March, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe in Ukraine, has been attacked during the conflict;


In November, Russia was forced to withdraw from several critical areas on the grounds of "strategic contraction";


In December, the European Union's price ceiling on Russian oil came into effect...


As we step into 2023, there is still no end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia says it will continue fighting until all goals are achieved; Ukraine insists it will not rest until every Russian soldier has been expelled from its territories. Will this turbulent New Year's conflict usher in a turning point in 2023?


For more than 300 days, the conflict on the front line has progressed in ups and downs. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the "invisible" battlefield has spread from nuclear security, food, and transportation to contests in the energy field. The international community has also been trying to weaken the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the areas mentioned above through various diplomatic efforts.


In the field of nuclear safety, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has attracted much attention, has been under the control of Russia since March, but who pushed it to the front line of the conflict has become a point of mutual accusation between Russia and Ukraine.


There is no precedent for the international community to deal with a nuclear power plant crisis in an armed conflict. Thus it is not difficult to understand that the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, believes that the attacks are playing with fire and must stop.


For this reason, he called on Russia and Ukraine to establish a safety zone around the nuclear power plant as soon as possible. "The safety zone is needed now more than ever." However, the proposal for a "safe zone" did not receive a positive response from Russia or Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has thus become a brutal "invisible bomb" in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.


Russia's primary export commodities in the energy field, from coal, oil to natural gas, have become the target of Western sanctions. But sanctions are like a double-edged sword.


While restricting Russia's economic development, it also brings pain to Europe, which was once most dependent on Russia's cheap energy. The sudden onset of the energy crisis caused inflation in many European countries to soar to double digits. According to reports, some European countries spent 17.7% of their GDP on energy purchases this year, the second highest ever, almost equal to the 17.8% during the second oil crisis from 1980 to 1981.


Although the energy crisis has also prompted Europe to transform quickly and seek diversification of energy import channels, the energy battle between Russia and Europe is far from over. Russia is also repositioning oil and gas exports to ensure stable national income. After all, the current international energy trade is still a seller's market.


As the world's two most important grain producers, the conflict restricted the grain exports of Russia and Ukraine due to sanctions and disputes.


The safety of the food supply is related to the development of the global economy.


The food price index released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations hit 159.3 points in March; it was the highest value since the index was compiled in 1990.


Since then, under the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, the grain transportation issue has achieved a substantial breakthrough in July.


On July 22, Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with the United Nations and Turkey on resuming the export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports.


At the same time, Russia and the United Nations signed a memorandum of understanding on exporting Russian agricultural products to ensure that Russian grain and fertilizers can enter the world market unimpeded.


Although there were still differences in the implementation process, fortunately, the agreement was successfully extended for another 120 days before it expired in mid-November 2022.



Russia and Ukraine also had peace talks at the initial stage of the conflict, and they were even close to shaking hands.


On March 29, under Turkey's mediation, Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a new round of face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul.


Ukraine proposed to establish a neutral status under international security guarantees, while Russia also promised to significantly reduce military operations in the direction of Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and Chernihiv.


Just when the outside world was quite optimistic, the Ukrainian side suddenly accused the Russian army of killing hundreds of civilians in the city of Bucha in the northwest of Kyiv. Russia unequivocally denies this.


Afterward, many Western countries accused Russia of the "Bucha incident". Since then, the negotiations have disappeared from the political agenda of both Russia and Ukraine.


Entering winter, the pace of the Russia-Ukraine conflict began to slow down. The topics of "withdrawal" and "negotiation" are rampant again.


Prior to this, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz successively talked with Russian President Putin, calling on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine to create conditions for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.


Also, Ukrainian President Zelensky also released the so-called "peace plan" on his social media. Of course, Zelensky's version of the "peace plan" was flatly rejected by Russia. For the West's propaganda, what Russia cannot accept is the withdrawal of troops as a prerequisite for negotiations. Peskov had stressed that it was only possible to make progress toward peace by considering the new realities of the situation in Ukraine.


On December 22 local time, Putin said that Russia hopes to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, "but this means that relevant diplomatic solutions must be proposed." He said: "Our goal is not to start a military conflict. On the contrary, it is to end this conflict. We will be committed to achieving this goal; the sooner, the better." Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the conflict, but Ukraine and its Western supporters refuse to participate.


While Russia asked to consider the "new reality", the West's military assistance to Ukraine is still increasing.


During a recent trip to the United States, Ukraine received the US "Patriot" air defense missile system and US military assistance.


According to a document released by the US Department of Defense on November 10, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February, the US has provided more than US$18.6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine.


The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think-tank, estimated even higher, saying that if all the support agreed to by the Biden administration and Congress was taken into account, including financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the US would have to pay more than 100,000 US dollars between January 24 and November 20.


During this period, Ukraine's aid amount was as high as about 48 billion US dollars. And this is only aid from the United States.


And Russia is also willing to sacrifice economic development in other fields in the 2023 budget and increase the national defense and security budget to 43%.


With the support of armaments and funds, can the conflict between Russia and Ukraine end "easily"?


Turkish Defense Minister Alka, who has been promoting the re-negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, is somewhat pessimistic about this: This conflict does not seem to end quickly.


On the one hand, it is the West's assistance to Ukraine, and on the other hand, it is Russia's determination.


We have good intentions and call for a ceasefire, but what can be said bluntly is that the conflict will continue in 2023.


 

Disclaimer: All the information on this website is provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis, and you agree to use such information entirely at your own risk. Monisight gives no warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information and materials contained in this website.


Under no circumstances will Monisight be held responsible or liable in any way for any claims, damages, losses, expenses, costs, or liabilities whatsoever (including, without limitation, any direct or indirect damages for loss of profits, business interruption, or loss of information) resulting or arising directly or indirectly from your use of or inability to use this website or any websites linked to it, or from your reliance on the information and material on this website, even if the Monisight has been advised of the possibility of such damages in advance.

Commentaires

Noté 0 étoile sur 5.
Pas encore de note

Ajouter une note
bottom of page